8:15 - Heh... making the relatives eat disgusting stuff! If the survivors were eating, Shii Ann might have been tough to beat... but I think she's really better off not winning... she has some work to do to stay in this game if she doesn't win immunity and she'll need to be around to talk to people... Only problem is one of the two plausible people she could talk to - Big Tom - isn't going to be around... I have a hard time picturing Amber, Jenna or Rob voting with her, so Shii Ann needs Big Tom...

8:30 - Big Tom really thinks he's going to the final two with Rob? Are you kidding? Now I can see hiding alliances or plans to vote someone out... but how could anyone there think that Rob and Amber wouldn't be taking one another? How is it possible?!?! I don't think we'll see much action on that this week... but next week when there's five people left and Rob and Amber would be in the minority for the last time... that's when we'll see how dense these players really are... My expectations are low...

8:45 - Jenna really is useless... I mean really, what has she contributed? What has she done well? Openly rooting against Shii Ann in the immunity challenges? That's weak... really weak... One of the only rules in Survivor is that you're not allowed to hit someone... If I were Shii Ann and I knew I was to be getting voted out tonight, I'd just smack Jenna upside the head and get thrown out... she deserves it...

9:00 - Of course the other option for Shii Ann - the better one - was to just lay it all on the table, lay out how 3 of the last 5 people were going to be screwed and make everyone else show their cards... She pretty clearly knew that she was going this week, or else she would have voted for Jenna - who also seemed to be on the chopping block... But in one of the first real surprises I've seen in many weeks, she called out the person who was pulling the strings... and it was Amber... For her part, Amber looked really uncomfortable after getting called out... I'm looking forward to seeing how that shakes down next week... for the good of the season, however, it's too late...

As we're getting ready to wrap up April, the Pirates stand one game under .500 at 9-10. It's not great, but it's not bad... And given that they're playing in the toughest division in baseball (the NL Central, at 26-15, has the best record against other divisions), they're not doing too bad... Yet ESPN's Power Rankings still lament the Bucs' status, ranking the team just outside the bottom 5 in all of baseball, lamenting Randall Simon's DL stint and commenting that the Bucs are "mired in last place." If "mired" means "tied for last" and "closer to first place than 12 other teams in baseball", then yeah... they're mired in last place... of course, ESPN is hardly the only outfit whose Pirates coverage that comes up lacking for effort to actually know anything about the team...

While the team is playing competitive ball, some of the individual players have really excelled so far this season. In fact, the Pirates could arguably have four all-stars. No, really... four all-stars! Craig Wilson is third in the NL in OPS, trailing only Adam Dunn and Sir Barry. Jason Kendall trails only Paul LoDuca in OBP among NL catchers and the group of Kendall, LoDuca, Piazza and Johnny Estrada has more or less separated itself from the rest of the pack. Three of these four will probably make the team.

Then there's the newly possessed Jack Wilson leading NL shortstops in all rate categories... I've railed about his lack of talent and his $1.85 million 2004 salary in the past (especially after he posted an OPS+ of 42 in 2001), but right now he's earning every penny of it and then some. I don't think it'll last, especially since he's only drawn TWO walks in 78 plate appearances, but I'll enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Joe Table is another whose fortunes I'm not optimistic about, if only because of who he is. But the numbers here do paint a somewhat better picture: 8.1 innings, 5 K's and 2 walks... not bad...

One guy whose successes are more likely to continue is Oliver Perez, who's fourth among qualifiers in NL ERA. Better yet, despite throwing fewer innings than anyone ahead of him, Perez has struck out more than any of them, including having twice as many K's as Tom Glavine (22-11)... In fact, only 5 qualifying pitchers have higher K/9 ratios than Perez, and you may be familiar with some of those names: Beckett, Clement, Johnson, Wood... and Vogelsong?

I like Vogelsong... The difference between him and the rest of the top six? Walk rate. Among these six, Vogelsong's K/BB ratio is by far the lowest - he's walking too many batters. Perez, on the other hand, has the highest K/BB ratio. Kip Wells in in the same boat as Vogelsong. Very good K/9 ratio, but a low K/BB. If Spin Williams can get these two to cut down on the walks, you might be looking at a trio of starters that could give the Bucs a chance to win every game they start.

Four all-stars from this group isn't terribly likely, but it is possible...

Law school was sooooo this morning... I'm way past that now...
No more school! Hooray!

I'll try and catch up on some things I've been meaning to post over the last few weeks before I go on vacation Friday morning...

8:30 - Right on cue, they bring in the type of challenge that I requested last week... obviously I have a lot of pull... What really surprised me was that Rupert won... I really didn't think he'd be the least "objectionable" member of the tribe... The allocation of dinners made the challenge doubly fascinating since it established at least one person's hierarchy of people... I didn't think Rupert was really that close with Rob and Amber...

But I don't think Rupert really knows what he's doing... presumably, he thinks he'll be final four with Jenna, Amber and Rob... but then what? Rupert needs a plan...

8:45 - Mad props to Shii Ann... had she won anything in Survivor history?

9:00 - While the reward challenge was interesting, the game hasn't really been lately... The strategy is almost completely lacking... Just like the worst of the prior seasons, it's become a matter of this alliance vs. that alliance, and in either case there's just going to be a predictable set of people being voted off... The players don't seem inclined to rock the boat... probably feeling a little too secure, maybe afraid of rocking the boat... in any case, it's not terribly interesting...

Yes, it really is 4:22 in the morning... and there are seven lights on in my room right now... and yes, my paper is finally done... or at least I'm not writing anything else... weehaa!

Just for kicks, here's the top 7 things I actually did to stay awake to finish this paper:

7. Turn on all eight lights in my room... really, there are eight!
6. Twizzlers... yeah... there's not much left in the bag...
5. Attempt to confirm the flight I have on hold with USAirways... unfortunately, I spent over 25 minutes on hold... the one time I did get through to someone, my call got dropped... grrr!
4. Attempt to take out the garbage... someone else had already taken it out... I guess people start looking forward to garbage night when it's piling up in the kitchen...
3. Music breaks! Thank you weezer, rage against the machine and prince...
2. Take a shower... and now I'm zestfully clean for my last day of classes!
1. Blog posts... more in one night than I did all week... and you'd think I'd want to get away from my computer screen for a bit! I guess it's time for that now... time to sleep! (For four hours-ish!)

VodkaPundit points out a story on the 50 worst songs of all time... coming in on the top (bottom?) of the list: Starship's "We Built This City"... OK, I'll admit it... back when I was in 2nd grade or whatever, that was my favorite song for awhile...

The No. 2 song is Billy Ray Cyrus' "Achy Breaky Heart," followed by Wang Chung's "Everybody Have Fun Tonight." "Rollin'" by Limp Bizkit ranks fourth, followed by "Ice Ice Baby," by Vanilla Ice.

Finishing off the top 10 worst songs ever are Huey Lewis and the News with "The Heart of Rock-and-Roll," "Don't Worry, Be Happy" by Bobby McFerrin, Eddie Murphy's "Party All the Time," "American Life" by Madonna, and "Ebony and Ivory" by Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder.

Really now? I could definitely come up with ten worse songs (OK, 9... achy breaky heart is a good call)... but I'm sorta writing a paper right now...

UPDATE: VodkaPundit has now posted his list of 50 songs he shouldn't like, but does. And yes, he really shouldn't like some of those... although it is fun to say "Kajagoogoo"

I hate my hair... always have, always will... It has this tendency to stick up, especially in the back... and it's not that cool, crazed-looking standing up either... it's a sorta nerdy little tuft of hair that arcs funny... and it's pretty lame...

I used to be a hat guy, but I got sick of that... Never wanted to be that guy putting crap in his hair to make it look fancy, but eventually I had to give in to that... I mean, what were my options? Keep the hat thing going (which doesn't jive with lots of jobs), let the hair look stupid (no thanks), shave my head (both)... what else?

Anyway, I've been at this for about a year now, and while my "normal" hair is sorta OK-ish, it's nothing great and I'm looking for a new hairstyle... even though I definitely prefer shorter hair to longer hair, I'm thinking about going for the Barry Zito look... I dunno if I could pull it off, but if I could... ? opinions?

btw: a quick web search found no good pictures of Barry and his hair... if someone could kindly find one and post the link in the comments... or at least write a good description, that would be cool...

OK... I haven't been posting so regularly lately, mostly because I've been working on two papers over the last two weeks... well tomorrow is my last day of classes - EVER! - and tonight will be my last night spent working on a paper until the wee hours of the morning. That's right: I have a major paper due at 9 AM on the last day of classes and I'll be working on it all night long... I'll swing by the ol' blog now and then to post some random thoughts to keep all my delusions out of the paper...

Helping me out this evening will be the one pound bag of strawberry Twizzlers that I just bought... hooray, Twizzlers! Better yet, they were on sale for 99 cents! Makes me reminisce about the good old days when I was in junior high and I would eat an entire pound of strawberry Twizzlers every night while I watched baseball games... oh, those were the days!

I'm not much a fan of the two-party system of American politics. For practical purposes, the choices presented to the electorate are generally between one bucket of policies and positions and another - there's nothing resembling a la carte choosing of stances on various issues or even a general mix of major party positions. Oh sure, there's the Independents, Libertarians, Greens, Consitutionalists, Socialists and Communists... but do they really matter? At the local level, it's certainly possible... At the national level? Not so much...

A principal underpinning of antitrust theory is that lack of competition hurts consumers. Anytime corporations collaborate to reduce competition or monopoly power is wielded to harm consumers, corporations can be on the hook for major fines.

Although political parties aren't corporations, they certainly have "consumers" (voters) and the major parties are essentially monopolistic in the sense that they are the only producers of a given ideology... there isn't much competition between different political parties with similar positions on individual issues... For instance, what party is someone to vote for if they support abortion rights AND free trade? Gay marriage AND broad Second Amendment rights? Legalizing marijuana AND centralized storage of nuclear waste? Raising minimum wage AND the war in Iraq?

These poor folks have to choose between issues and then vote for someone who, by virtue of their political alliance, is forced to fight against an issue important to that constituent who voted for them... In short, their representatives aren't so representative... Under a multiparty system, I'd suspect that there would at least be two parties on each side of each issue, and the choices might be a little more tailored towards the actual attitudes that people have...

Beyond providing a poor representation of their consituencies, the two party system has become an incredibly divisive force, with the incessant feuding between the two sides taking on Capulet vs. Montague proportions. Neither side appears willing to give an inch unless it absolutely has to, because support for the party has become the paramount issue, trumping the need to solve problems. In the meantime, this failure to compromise creates problems like unfilled seats in the Federal appellate judiciary.

The drive to prove the other party "wrong" for political purposes typically leads to knee-jerk criticism of whatever "they" are doing and an endless search for fault. The resulting criticism, condemnation and rhetoric coming from each side is at best posturing and name-calling and at worst misleading. Quite frankly, this type of politics is really unbecoming and dissuades me from voting for either major party...

Fortunately, there do seem to be some people who seem to be more philosophical about the issues than simply looking at the letter next to a candidate's name. But at the same time, it seems as if they're in the same boat as the hypothetical person with the electoral dilemma who I created four paragraphs ago - caught between the platforms of the two major parties. Although I suspect that these living embodiments of the hypothetical person will vote the way they're currently leaning, it will only be after a few months of internal deliberations. I suppose you could call them "undecided" for the time being. And just where do I get these suspicions? Because I am the hypothetical person. I am undecided.

OK, I've been a little lax the last few weeks... but quite frankly, these haven't been terribly good Survivor episodes. From the moment Lex and Kathy chose to get rid of Jerri instead of Amber (pretty clearly a bad choice at the time, mind you), everything that's happened has been really predictable... I'm not sure we've seen so much inevitability since season 4 - or maybe even season 3...

The best thing that ever happened to the series was the challenge in season 4 where players had to cut each other's ropes, giving a bit of a preview of how the game might play out... Since there is an apparent six-way alliance at this point, right about now would be an opportune moment for another challenge in that mold...

But seriously, what are these guys thinking? How do the people in the 6 person alliance figure the game will play out? Their alliance guarantees them final six... then what? And what good is final six?? Gameplay has become extremely conservative and I'd say unimpressive... That said, I'd expect some shakeups next week because Shii Ann can be brought into a group of three and then you have a final four right there... Given the willingness to be guaranteed final six that everyone else has, it seems that guaranteeing final four would be the next logical step... and for Shii Ann, anything that keeps her in the game should suffice...

I'm told that the spoilers say that Rob or Amber is going to win... I certainly hope not... Sure, they're kind of annoying, but even worse, the editing of the show has been foreshadowing that result for weeks... I'd be really disappointed if Mark Burnett edited this season to produce such a boring product...

Happy 40th birthday to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel... Although it may be "One of Seven Engineering Wonders of the Modern World", gallant design certainly doesn't extend to its website... or is there some ongoing game of keep-away with these guys and the idea of "contrast?"

Will Baude is suggesting that everyone play this fun little game...

1. Grab the nearest book.
2. Open the book to page 23.
3. Find the fifth sentence.
4. Post the text of the sentence in your journal along with these instructions.

Sadly, I'm not sure what the results say about me... technically speaking, the nearest book is a law school book and it results in a citation sentence: Id., at 566-67, 5 S. Ct. at 270-71, 28 L. Ed. at 781.
Deep stuff, huh? At least the citation is to the Supreme Court...

Then, I have some other books in arm's length too... taking the most interesting of those (all of which are nonfiction), we get: The bib was still around, but by the late seventies shirts began to appear with a different closure.
First person to figure out what this is about gets a gold star...

Then we'll find a fictional book, if only because everyone else seems to be doing it and I want to fit in with all the cool bloggers... And since my copy of The Long, Dark Tea-Time of the Soul doesn't have five sentences on page 23, I moved to the next work of literature that I could find: "I... SAID... I'D... LIKE... A..." and then he stopped.

You are a GRAMMAR GOD!


If your mission in life is not already to
preserve the English tongue, it should be.
Congratulations and thank you!


How grammatically sound are you?
brought to you by Quizilla

A little less verbose this time...

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Blue Jays
3. Red Sox
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

C'mon, it's way too easy to pick the status quo, which has held for the last five years... Besides, the Sox look vulnerable to me... They might not bank on Pedro's health quite as much as they have the past few years and the bullpen looks improved, but they need Nomar to be healthy and they need Manny Ramirez focused... Getting Trot Nixon back soon will help them, but this division is stacked and the margin of error the Sox have had the last few years has diminished... The Orioles will be fun to watch, because they've got some bats (especially if Javy Lopez can do half of what he did last year) and absolutely no pitching...

AL Central
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Tigers

Much like the NL West, this division is really up for grabs... The Tigers don't have much of a shot to win it, but the other four teams do... Originally, I had the Twins and Indians swapped, but the more I think about it, the more problems I see with the Twins and the more I like the Tribe... Joe Mauer may be the key to the division... If he struggles, as many rookies - even heralded ones do - the Twins could fall to fourth... If he succeeds, the Twins could be tough to beat... The division winner here may finish below .500

AL West
1. A's
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rangers

Oakland has so much starting pitching, it should be a crime. They will have a legitimate chance to win every game, based solely on who they're sending to the mound... with Joe Blanton on the way, they're even in good shape in case someone gets hurt or struggles... The offense will be average, but it'll be enough... The Angels have made a lot of additions, but each one has concerns... Vlad's back, Colon's weight/health, Escobar's mercurial nature, Guillen's hacktastic ways... but if Troy Glaus can bounce back, they'll be a contender... Texas vs. Baltimore: 20 runs scored or your money back!

AL Summary
Playoffs: Yankees over Angels, A's over Royals... A's over Yankees...
MVP: Vernon Wells
Cy Young: Tim Hudson
ROY: Bobby Crosby
Manager: Carlos Tosca

It's baseball's opening day... take three... time for predictions:

NL East
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Expos

Really. This is the year the Braves don't win the division... The pitching is more suspect than it has been for a decade and the offense has to replace two guys who had monster 2003 seasons (Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield)... Meanwhile, the Phillies are improved... not by a whole lot, but by enough... the new additions will help, but less than expected... The biggest boost I think they'll get will come from returning players performing better, notably Pat Burrell and Marlon Byrd.

The defending world champion Marlins had a lot of things go right last year. Yes, they were the best team in baseball from mid-May on, but you can't expect Dontrelle Willis to pitch way over his head again... The rotation as a whole won't be as consistent as it was a year ago, especially after the loss of Mark Redman... Ugueth Urbina, Braden Looper, Pudge Rodriguez, Derrek Lee and Juan Encarnacion are also gone from the World Series team... I don't see them getting back this year...

The Mets will be better with Mike Cameron in center field, but they still don't strike me as being a "good" team... They're a default choice for fourth, since the Expos are busy being gutted...

NL Central
1. Astros
2. Cubs
3. Cardinals
4. Brewers
5. Pirates
6. Reds

It's a tale of two divisions, as the top three all have playoff aspirations while the bottom three are perhaps the worst teams in the NL this year... The Cardinals will be the mid/late-90's Indians: all hitting, not enough pitching... fun to watch, but destined for third unless they can come up with an arm somewhere (Adam Wainwright?)

The talk has been all about the Cubs and Astros... Mark Prior's injury might be the difference here... unless Jimy Williams' odd managing tactics down the Astros... it's really a toss-up, but since I'm an Astros fan, I'll go with my heart and pick them to take the division...

At the bottom, the Reds have no pitching... If Adam Dunn has been cursed by the Baseball Prospectus cover jinx and turns out to be nothing more than the second coming of Rob Deer, it could be a long season in Cincy. I think the Pirates could actually finish fourth, and the roster moves they made this spring suggested they might be "getting it"... The course of their season might be determined in the first two months: if the young kids start out hot and don't get benched, Lloyd will stick with 'em... if not, it's bench time for them and we see veteran alternatives with no upside... Given the relative current lack of veteran alternatives, I think we'll see more of the guys with upside...

Speaking of upside, that's the key for the Brewers. Their farm system is stocked with talent that should be arriving shortly... Perhaps they get their feet wet in the second half? That doesn't mean they'll succeed initially, but it gives Brewers fans reason for hope in the next few years... Likely, the Brew Crew doesn't take fourth this year, but they just as well might...

NL West
1. Diamondbacks
2. Dodgers
3. Padres
4. Giants
5. Rockies

Speaking of they may/they may not, the NL West is a complete crapshoot this year... Any of the five teams winning the division is not implausible... The D-Bax gave some younger players like Alex Cintron and Brandon Webb PT last year and it paid off nicely... With a season of experience under their belts, they could be ready to win a division without a great team... Randy Johnson is the key to this team...

The Dodgers have beefed up the offense a little bit, but the pitching that was so amazing last year has taken a hit... Kevin Brown and Paul Quantrill are off in New York, Hideo Nomo is coming off surgery and regression to the mean is about to take hold of Eric Gagne... Their wild card is Paul DePodesta, who has already made some nice little moves to strengthen the team... If he can go out and plug a hole or two midseason, the Dodgers could easily take the crown... A Shawn Green resurgence might also do the trick...

The Padres are the trendy pick for the third time in as many years, and they too have reason to think this is their year... but I worry about the aging sluggers - Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko and Brian Giles... If PETCO Park plays like a pitcher's park, their strengths could be negated and leave the Padres dependent upon Sean Burroughs, Khalil Greene and Jay Payton... hmmm...

The Giants have been reduced to Barry Bonds... he is the team... no more Cruz, no more Aurilia, no more Worrell, no more Santiago... now Edgardo Alfonzo, AJ Pierzynski and Ray Durham could step up and provide the support that Bonds needs, but there are more weaknesses here than there are on the other teams... PacBell... er... SBC Park might be the Giants' secret weapon... they've historically had a relatively large home field advantage...

The Rockies are still trying to master Coors Field... I'd have loved to see Mike Cameron roaming the outfield there, but the money just didn't seem to be there this offseason... the typical road struggles will haunt them again this year... unless they don't, in which case the Rockies could take the title...

NL Summary
Playoffs: Astros over Diamondbacks, Cubs over Phillies.... Astros over Cubs....
MVP: Jim Thome
Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
ROY: Jason Bay
Manager: Bob Brenly

I'll get to the AL later... maybe tomorrow...

The new US News law school rankings are out, and if you're looking for Pitt, you'll find us at #47... that's right, we're top tier! Of course, law school deans remind us that these rankings are by no means determinative of where you should get your legal education (That said, I'm sure Dean Herring exchanged a few high fives when he got the news that we'd broken into the top tier)...

Of course, the deans are right.. The US News rankings take certain factors into account such as reputation, selectivity and job placement... but it also leaves out other very important factors, including cost, location and Tibetian food within 600 miles... Certainly some of these factors are highly individualized. I chose Pitt mainly based on its location (with reputation being a factor in making Duquesne a second choice)...

Changing the weight given to the ranking criteria - as well as the criteria themselves - will give you a different rank order... If you'd like to manipulate the rankings yourself, you can play the Law School Ranking home game! A moderate amount of effort got Pitt Law up to #24, but I'm sure I could have boosted that a little more... play for yourself...

Brian Leiter notes how the rankings can be manipulated and highlights George Mason as a school that has been "gaming the system." About these practices, Leiter notes that

"That is not a criticism: the system deserves to be gamed, since it is intellectually bankrupt."

I'm not so sure I buy it... I suppose "gaming the system" could be seen as a tactic to a greater tomorrow for some schools, but if the system is recognized as being flawed, should schools really be aspiring for success in that flawed system? Incidentally, the Dean of George Mason's law school is one of the few who did not sign the letter to law school candidates downplaying the importance of the rankings...

Two big things to remember today... I'm sure you all got the bit about daylight savings time (the most wonderful time of the year!)... but did you realize that today sees two of the 24 moments this century when the year, month, date, hour, minute and second are all the same number? That's right! Right now, it's 04:04:04 on 04/04/04... cool...
(and thanks to Heidi Bond for the reminder)

Is Sports Center gone? This Slate article would say yes... Interestingly enough, the case is made the Sports Center has become an effort to purvey style but not substance without even one mention of Stuart Scott, who may be the worst offender... Also not mentioned in the article is the increased number of sponsored segments... Is the Budweiser Hot Seat really newsworthy? That "final exam" thingy they've been running lately? Is Sports Center still a sports news show?

The network seems to be seeking to position ESPN as a branding tool and promotions vehicle for ABC, while leaving the news to ESPNews (or espn.go.com)... The emphasis then shifts back to attitude - selling the sizzle but not the steak... that's what branding is all about...

The resultant focus on being hip is annoying, and it was never more painfully on display than during Dream Job, where the contestants were sampling catch phrases like they were in a bad Sports Center commercial. Could they have been trying any harder to fit into the ESPN attitude?

And speaking of Dream Job, how on Earth did a nationwide search of over 10,000 people net those twelve contestants? Yes, there were some strong contenders... Mike, Aaron and Zach all brought something to the table... but when someone can make the final four with a lisp?? C'mon guys... Maggie may have been a fine writer, but when talking is an essential and fundamental part of the job, things like speech impediments - however minor - are a big red flag...

That said, congrats to Mike Hall, the Dream Job winner and ultimate frisbee player... he strikes me as a little Craig Kilborn-ish, which could be a good thing or a bad thing...